Now that New York Advertising Week is over, we can go back to dismissing many of the predictions made there. (Just kidding). Some of these predictions will come true, of course, but not very quickly. Others are upon us already.
Vertical video, for instance, is already accepted by users, who grew up on Periscope and Vine. It’s not a big stretch to think that advertising will use it more fruitfully in the near future and should have been doing so already. Ogilvy is experimenting with it now. Its creative director, Tham Khai Meng, believes that constraints force agencies to take creative leaps and do great work. He spoke on a panel about storytelling last week.
We can grab the highlights about everything else that’s barreling toward us from a report by PSFK called, no less, “The Future of Advertising,” in which the agency reminds us that consumers are no longer content to be spoken to by brands, and want to have a value-based relationship with any brand asking for their attention. (This has been said since “The Cluetrain Manifesto”). PSFK reminds us that the human attention span is moving steadily downward, from 12 seconds in 2000 to 8 seconds in 2014, and that ad blocking went mainstream in 2015, with 121 million people downloading ad blockers. Millennials spend more time in messaging apps than on social networks now, so targeting must also change.
And perhaps worst, 59% of online traffic stems not from humans, but from query-focused bots.
Sounds terrible, doesn’t it? But the news is not all bad. Although the industry is changing, 50% of brands think advertising is more important than ever, even if 56% of those brands think agencies are less so, and 44% agree that media outlets are fading in importance. 80% of media outlets think the agency is less important than before. In this survey of 150 professionals across 14 countries from brands, agencies, and media outlets, the most obvious conclusion is that the agencies are in more trouble than anyone else in the business.
At the end of the day, PSFK’s report says what we all know: consumers are motivated by reward, utility, loyalty, entertainment, status, novelty, or convenience. What’s amazing is how often we forget to trigger those motivators in advertising.
While we all need to concern ourselves with the typical digital media issues in the near term — fraud, lack of viewability, and the use of artificial intelligence against us by bots — some of the farther out predictions are exciting.
For example, Virtual Reality. Although Apple didn’t give us the big VR/AR announcement we expected when they launched the new iPhones, the company did introduce its developer platform, ARkit, which forced Google to launch one as well. And in the industry, experiments are already under say to use VR as an advertising tool. Mark Lore, CEO of e-Commerce for WalMart in the US said that in WalMart’s tech lab store number 8 they are already testing virtual reality that takes you to a virtual lake to test out fishing gear.
We predict that virtual reality isn’t something that will overtake the industry next year, but will eventually compromise a large part of advertising’s creative as better glasses and better applications are released. In the meantime, augmented reality will be the most useful tool.